So, as usual, Frump took the first two weeks to get a feel for the college football landscape this year. Week 3 we went 4-3 against the spread (ATS); Week 4 was dominated by wedding festivities (no (betting) action); and now we head into week 5 sitting at 57%, 3 points shy of Frump’s lofty 60% ATS winning percentage goal for the season.
We’re not counting on that, obviously. We’d be thrilled to even maintain our current 57-58% rate, but why not to aim high, right? With that in mind, let’s go ahead and take a quick look at the seven games Frump likes for Week 5 (in no order):
N.C. State at Miami -2.5; O/U 56.5
Kicking things off with a bit of Raleigh flavor, N.C. State (3-1) travels down to sunny south Florida to take on the Miami Hurricanes (3-1) before what’s sure to be yet another tepid, non-capacity crowd at Sun Life Stadium.
Yes, in case you haven’t heard, despite the best efforts of the local sports radio community, the U tends to have a bit of trouble drumming up the kind of fan enthusiasm, passion and support that one might expect from such a prestigious college football program. And that should play an important role in Frump’s pick of Under 56.5.
There’s not a heap of series history here; N.C. State is 5-7-1 all time against Miami. The relevant angle for the Under, however, is what these two teams have done against comparable competition this year, and — in the case of Miami — where they’ve done it.
The total in each of N.C. State’s three games against FBS competition would meet the Under 56.5 today, including a strong 10-7 win @ UConn in Week 2. Miami, on the other hand, has been hitting Overs on the reg (3-0). All three of the Hurricanes games against FBS competition (Boston College, Kansas State, Georgia Tech) have smashed Over 56.5 (72, 65, 78, respectively). All three of those games have also, however, been on the road.
The lone home game for Miami up until today saw the Canes beat Bethune-Cookman 38-10 in Week 3. After an emotional, hard fought win against @ Georgia Tech last week, expect Miami to return home to the lukewarm confines of Sun Life Stadium, where a similarly-styled performance from two teams still seemingly trying to find their way should help Frump win with the Under here.