Frump’s Lock of the Day: N.C. State +5 at UAB in the NIT

Sat, Mar 20, 2010 at 1:39 pm ET

College Basketball

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Sidney Lowe may have the Blazers by the cohonesTired of the Tourney yet? No, of course you’re not. Nevertheless, if you happened to just catch that fantastic finish between UNC and Mississippi State in the NIT Semis, you know there’s still some good basketball being played outside of the Big Dance. Best of all, there’s a good chance the other side of that game could leave us with an extremely tasty, classic Tobacco Road rivalry in the Quarter-Finals. That’s right, the only thing keeping us from a sweet North Carolina-North Carolina State match-up in the Little Dance is those god forsaken fire breathers from the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

To top it all off, assuming your brackets are performing a bit below par, here’s a great opportunity to help pad your potential losses (assuming you’re doing this legally, of course). Make the jump to see why we think there’s enough of a lean towards the Wolfpack in this one to make it our lock of the day…

Roy Williams and the Tar Heels may have to face NC State a third time this yearSeriously, the trends are strong in this one.  To start, N.C. State is 23-11 ATS as an underdog over the past 2 seasons, and a respectable 18-13 ATS overall for the 2009-2010 season.  The Wolfpack are also on a 15-6 ATS run on the road over the last two seasons (today’s game is at UAB), and, in some much more narrowly tailored trends, 9-2 ATS this year after a game in which they allowed 60 points or less, and 8-2 ATS after scoring 60 points or less (both in play here),

But wait, there’s more.   The Wolfpack are also 6-0 ATS in all of their ACC and NIT Tournament games this year, 5-1 ATS in all March games, and are 16-6 ATS over the last two seasons in road games when being hosted by a team with a winning record.

Now, to be fair, strong, one-sided trends usually aren’t enough to get me excited.  Thankfully the negative UAB numbers make this one even more enticing.  UAB is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5-6 points over the last three seasons.  The Blazers are also a quite appalling 4-14 ATS in all tournament games during the same stretch.  Read: combined with the fact that the two teams are pretty much statistically identical on paper, the trends suggest NCSU is a strong play here ATS.

Fingers crossed, for sure, but not too tightly, necessarily.  I can smell the tobacco curing already…

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3 Responses to “Frump’s Lock of the Day: N.C. State +5 at UAB in the NIT”

  1. Cochese Says:

    37-17 UAB at the half – dodo pie

  2. Ciaran Says:

    Indeed. Not much of an angle to see a beatdown like this coming. Bitterly disappointing.

  3. GB24 Says:

    thats very intresting aritcal.
    how can I get some more information?

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